Could Man United Miss Out on Top-four?

Not likely

Do you ever wonder why Narcissus was so obsessed with his looks? to the point where he couldn’t tear his gaze away from his reflection? There are different versions of the story, but they all end similarly: Narcissus is a victim of his own expectations. He became trapped by his own ego and could not move past his image. He wasted away and died, consumed by his obsession. Aren’t ancient Greek myths so strange?

Managing expectations is like the Manchester United of problems at Manchester United. It’s an institution-wide affliction. The narratives surrounding the team shift and change constantly, like grains of sand in a desert storm. As an institution, they can’t seem to make up their minds about themselves as an institution, constantly jumping from one extreme to the other based on the outcome of each season or media narratives. For the fans, one minute, they’re title contenders; the next, they’re a mid-table club.

This constant fluctuation is fueled by the media, who tend to overreact to every win and loss. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype, believing that this season will be where everything falls into place. But more often than not, those expectations are unrealistic and unsustainable.

The ethos created by Sir Matt Busby and Sir Alex Ferguson aeons ago has been the bedrock of their club’s decision-making since 2013. From hiring managers to splurging on high-profile signings that barely make a dent in the team, this approach can come off as somewhat narcissistic because it seems like the club still think they’re better than they actually are. But you have to trim the fat before you can build muscle. So sometimes, lowering your expectations can be the key to raising them.

And that’s the problem with expectations. They create this very rigid framework for success. When we set our sights too high, we set ourselves up for disappointment. And when we’re constantly chasing an unattainable goal, we’re bound to get burned out.

This is a lesson that Manchester United has learned the hard way. The team has been plagued by inconsistency for years, and many fans and pundits have blamed the constant changes in management and playing style. But the truth is, the problem runs deeper than that. It’s a problem of expectations.

There was a lot of hype surrounding Erik Ten Hag at the beginning of the season. He was seen as the saviour Manchester United needed to bring back the glory days. The pre-season games looked promising, with his unique style of play catching the attention of many. But when the actual season began, things started to go south quickly.

Losing the first two games was not the start anyone hoped for. It led to a lot of questioning and doubt about whether the Dutchman’s style would work with this team. It’s a common issue that many managers face, especially when they’re new to a group. They need time to get to know the players and figure out what works best for them.

Ten Hag was no different. He had to make tough decisions about sticking to his style or adapting to what the players were comfortable with. And, as we all know, he eventually found a way to balance both. United started to win more games and even got a trophy out of it.

For a while, it looked like the team had finally found their groove. Finishing in the top three seemed like a very realistic goal. But as always, expectations changed. Fans started to want more, and who could blame them? Ten Hag made them believe that more was possible. And then, two losses in a row at a critical point in the season saw those expectations shift again.

So, is top four gone?

I don’t think so.

league positions between Man United and Newcastle since the start of the season via sofascore

United have four games left in the season. Realistically, they could get 12 points if they play their cards right. Of course, if they can’t quite manage that, they could still squeak into the top four with just nine points — but that could depend on some help from their rivals.

Now sitting in fourth place, having played 34 games with 19 wins and 9 losses, they’ve scored 49 goals and conceded 41, which puts them in 8th place for goals scored and 6th for goals conceded in the League.

But the real story is the race for third place. Right now, Newcastle are holding onto that spot with 65 points. Liverpool are nipping at their heels with 62 points, and they’re hungry to move up the ladder.

Of course, much of this will depend on how Newcastle performs in their upcoming fixtures against Leeds, Brighton, Leicester, and Chelsea. All games that will be crucial if they want to maintain their spot.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last eight games, and they have a “winnable” lineup of fixtures against Leicester, Aston Villa, and Southampton to wrap up the season. I don’t think they could have hoped for a better run of fixtures. Jurgen Klopp must be feeling like a kid in a candy store.

league positions between Man United and Liverpool since the start of the season via sofascore

But playing UCL football next season is in Man United’s hands now. It’s looking more and more realistic with each loss, and they know it. At this point, one of the three top-four contenders will have to settle for Europa League football next season, and United cannot afford any more slip-ups.

Their next fixtures will be crucial in determining their final league position. They have games against Wolves, Bournemouth, Chelsea, and Fulham and can’t afford to take any of them lightly. Luckily, they’ve got a game in hand over Liverpool, which could be crucial in their bid.

As they say, “League positions never lie; you are where you deserve to be.”

Okay, maybe nobody actually says that. But you get the point.

United have the tools they need to succeed — now it’s just a matter of putting it all together and making a run for it. And It’s already been a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs, twists and turns for ten Hag’s reds, with more drama than a Shakespearean tragedy.

Ten Hag has been doing well this season, especially with that Carabao Cup win, but many United fans would gladly throw that trophy out the window if it meant they didn’t have to listen to the Europa League anthem next season.

Thankfully, it’s improbable that they will miss out on UCL football altogether. But best not to get too cocky; anything can happen in this beautiful game.

One thing that has been holding United back lately is injuries and fatigue. It’s been a rough go for them these past few games, with Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez out for the rest of the season. But that can’t be the only excuse for why they’ve been “struggling.”

Their last four games of the season are looking a bit easier than what they’ve faced in recent weeks. And if they want to prove their mettle and secure that UCL spot, they must step up their game and show that they’re worthy of Europe’s elite League.

But to succeed in the long term, they must find a way to manage expectations, which means building a solid foundation and taking things one step at a time, learning from their mistakes, and being patient with their progress. Remember Narcissus and be careful not to get too wrapped up in their own image or risk becoming just another victim of their expectations.